The stock of iron ore at the port increased by 17million tons in half a month.
what is the reason for the backlog of a large number of iron ore at the port? Can the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce and other ministries and commissions find a cure
"the national development and Reform Commission is preparing a notice with relevant departments to solve the problem of iron ore port pressing. After the notice is issued, it needs to be countersigned by all departments before implementation." On May 21, a person from the industry department of the national development and Reform Commission told this newspaper
the above-mentioned person from the industry department of the national development and Reform Commission said that it is not convenient to disclose its specific measures at present, "but it will certainly adopt market-oriented means". However, he told this newspaper that the solution will be introduced before the Olympic Games
on May 15, China Iron and Steel Association (hereinafter referred to as "CISA") issued a document for the first time since China joined the iron ore negotiations, requiring Rio Tinto, an Australian mining enterprise, to earnestly perform the ore supply contract; In an interview, Dr. rose Ann ryntz, senior vice president of development and materials development (IAC group for short), said that luobingsheng, executive vice president of CISA, together with domestic port enterprises, iron and steel enterprises and trade enterprises, rushed to the port iron ore port dredging coordination meeting organized by xiongbilin, deputy director of the industry department of the national development and Reform Commission; On the 20th, CISA issued a notice calling on members to control the total import volume and import rhythm of iron ore, and resolutely resist the behavior of deliberately importing and hoarding iron ore in large quantities, reselling at high prices, and disrupting the iron ore trade order in the domestic market regardless of the actual needs of the domestic marketIt is reported that the relevant departments of ministries and commissions including the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce have collectively discussed the "pressure on the port mine", which is the most intensive in recent years. According to the national development and Reform Commission, as of May 15, the iron ore stock in China's ports had reached 79.22 million tons, an increase of more than 50% over the beginning of the year, setting a new high for port deposits and showing an upward trend. At the end of April, the figure was 61.91 million tons. Within half a month, the quantity of iron ore in Hong Kong surged by more than 17 million tons. Qingdao port, Rizhao Port (14.31,0.00,0.00%, bar), Tianjin Port (19.41,0.00,0.00%, bar), Lianyungang (7.44,0.00,0.00%, bar) and other ports have a large backlog of iron ore and serious port blockage
"I just came back from Tianjin Port yesterday. The trunk lines in the warehouse are full of iron ore." On the 21st, an iron ore import trader in Tianjin told China
at present, due to the serious backlog of ore deposits in the port, the time for Ocean bound ore ships to stay at the port has reached days after arriving at the port, which not only brings economic losses, but also affects the exertion of transport capacity. Based on the monthly average CIF price of imported iron ore of 129.47 US dollars/ton, the total amount of funds occupied by port deposits has reached 10.26 billion US dollars, exacerbating the difficulties of enterprise capital turnover
CISA pointed out in the notice of "controlling excessive import of iron ore" that the whole industry produced 159.3086 million tons of blast furnace pig iron this month, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.8 percentage points. Based on the increase of 12.1565 million tons of pig iron on a year-on-year basis, the iron ore consumption increased by 19.2 million tons on a month-on-year basis; At the same time, the raw ore increased by 47.6715 million tons per month. After meeting the additional consumption of 19.2 million tons for blast furnace production increase, there is still 3.5 million tons of ore in the furnace
in the same period, China's total imported iron ore reached 153.49 million tons, an increase of 19.19 million tons or 15.15% over the same period last year. Based on the monthly average daily imported ore of 126852 tons, it is equivalent to the annual imported iron ore of 463million yuan, an increase of 80million tons over 383million tons in 2007, far exceeding the demand of the whole industry for imported iron ore
port dredging has little effect.
"port dredging is an inevitable move." Wangzhaohua, an iron and steel analyst at Tianxiang investment, believes that the acceleration of the state's efforts to dredge iron ore inventories will trigger enterprises to accelerate sales, which will involve the decline of domestic spot iron ore prices. The high domestic spot mine price is one of the bases for Australian mining enterprises to require the Changxie mine to increase its price by 85% in the iron ore negotiations. Therefore, dredging Hong Kong is conducive to easing the pressure of China in the negotiations
in addition, port congestion and tight transport capacity of dry bulk carriers led to the BDI (Baltic Sea shipping index) index reaching 11459 on May 20, the highest level since its establishment. This is tantamount to indirectly encouraging Australian mining enterprises to seek compensation for the price difference between Australian and Brazilian mines' sea freight to China in the negotiations. Last week, the international shipping rate has risen by 10%, and the transportation cost gap between Brazil and Australia has widened to US $60 per ton, an increase of 72% over the same period in 2007
"port dredging is to cut off the vicious circle of this chain." Analysts said that the move to dredge the port was intended to reduce the port inventory, so as to stabilize the sea freight and spot market prices, and ease the pressure on China's stalled iron ore price negotiations with Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton
however, some insiders worry that this move will lead foreign mining enterprises to make a wrong interpretation of "China's demand increases again" and exert greater pressure on China
Qingdao Yingtong Trading Co., Ltd. currently has 300000 tons of iron ore in Tianjin port. Liu Zhi of its foreign mining division said in an interview that port dredging is mainly a defensive strategy with limited impact. "There are too many uncertain factors in price. Whether it is high or low, large steel mills have the bottom in their hearts and can bet on both sides. Moreover, large enterprises have the practice of setting up inventory in ports due to their own site restrictions. For those small traders who follow the trend and gamble on 85% price increase, the pressure of capital flow is very great."
Mr. Guo, from Tianjin port business department, said on the 21st: "the situation of Tianjin port is good. We have been doing the work of port dredging, and there is no shortage in China. It is expected that the import volume will decline in January. Port dredging needs the cooperation of the railway department and the automobile transportation department, but the most important thing is to look at the picking up of goods by large steel mills and the trading status of traders."
according to the previous interview, when the pressure on the port reached 62million tons in April, some enterprises began to sell goods at low prices because they could not bear the pressure of inventory rent and so on. But the market turnover was light
reasons for port pressure
"there is still demand". Relevant people of Shandong Wanbao Trade Co., Ltd. believe that the demand still exists, but due to the impact of factors such as the unfinished negotiation of iron ore long-term association and the sudden earthquake in China, some iron and steel enterprises have mostly changed the form of purchasing iron ore from spot to futures. Some enterprises require traders to deliver the goods immediately, while others wait for one month to pick up the goods
"when the cargo ships arrive, they go ashore first, but the iron and steel enterprises can't catch up with the arrival speed, so the iron ore pressure on the port increases." The person said
a person from the International Trade Department of Sinosteel group analyzed the reasons for this newspaper, saying that the domestic monetary tightening, the sharp rise in coking coal prices, some iron and steel enterprises' abdominal distress, limited funds and other multiple reasons caused the backlog of iron ore
"nearly 1/3 of the port mines are Changxie mines imported by large domestic state-owned enterprises. Some enterprises temporarily put them there without urgent need, and nearly 1/3 are hoarding and hoarding strange mines." The person in charge of a large trading company said
Yangbing, chief information officer of China Iron and steel resources service, said in an interview: "The main reason for iron ore pressure on the port is the psychological game driven by interests. Large steel enterprises are not in a hurry to pick up the goods, and intermediate traders are also waiting and hoping to sell at a higher price after the initial bet. However, in fact, the main thread of upstream raw materials - midstream steel enterprises - downstream users is often forgotten by the impetuous psychology, which determines the structure of the tension machine."
Miss Tian from the Mining Department of Qingdao tiemeng trading company said frankly that the current market is not optimistic: "now all traders basically have inventory in the port, not because they don't want to sell, but because the price is too high, there are fewer steel mills taking goods." It is reported that at present, Qingdao port and Rizhao Port sometimes cannot be unloaded, and all parties are in a wait-and-see state
according to the analysis of insiders, iron and steel enterprises in Hebei, Shandong and other places reduced their production due to the Olympic Games, resulting in lower demand for iron ore. Although the transaction price of domestic spot mines is still strong in recent days, the trading volume is small
a "secret that is no longer a secret" is that "in the past few years, some domestic enterprises with the import qualification of Changxie mine resell their imported products to domestic traders or other steel mills to make profits, and eat the price difference, resulting in a net profit of hundreds of millions of yuan a year. This phenomenon was once very serious, and was also criticized by foreign mines." The above-mentioned insiders expressed concern
for the current disordered state, the notice of CISA calls on relevant departments to suspend or cancel the qualification of imported iron ore for serious cases
as an intermediate link, if the price of upstream raw materials continues to rise, steel enterprises will raise product prices and transfer the pressure to downstream end users, which will further form inflationary pressure, which is a common consensus of the whole industry. "So there is a progressive relationship between iron ore and inflation." Yang Bing even pointed out: "the state should have administrative law enforcement capabilities, understand the role of the iron and steel industry as a link between the preceding and the following, and have a deep understanding of this department, to be responsible for this series of supervision, coordination and even punishment."
at present, due to Rio Tinto's strong response to CISA's position and the rising sea freight, the iron ore price negotiations between China and Australia are still in a deadlock. However, due to China's lack of bargaining power, some people believe that the Libra of the negotiations has tilted to the Australian side
the above insiders said to: "it may not be possible to reach a conclusion in June. At present, we have some wishful thinking. However, this may not be a good opportunity for some participants to survive and take the opportunity to rectify the industry. Due to the high price of foreign mines, Cheng Slater said: "What I really hope is that the regulation and self-discipline of our domestic industry is not strong. It is better to realize the reorganization and alliance of the industry and strengthen the negotiation ability externally."
in this regard, Yang Bing said: "the steel mills and mines are interdependent. Foreign mines also understand that they have invested so much and will not give up the market. I personally believe that the relevant national departments should orderly restrict the list of iron ore import qualified enterprises to avoid blind import."